GLP-1 Drugs: Reshaping the Future of Food & Beverage Innovation

Hi, it's Teigan here.

What do Oprah Winfrey, Rebel Wilson, James Corden, Elon Musk, Sharon Osbourne and rapper Fat Joe have in common? Besides being famous, they’re just a handful of celebrities that have admitted to taking Ozempic - the infamous weight loss drug now synonymous with a growing class of GLP-1 medications, including Saxenda, Victoza, Wegovy, and Trulicity, with more racing to enter the market.

Introduced in 2005 to help treat diabetes, by 2023, over 30% of new GLP-1 users in the U.S. were purely for weight-loss or preventative use. And while users are still disproportionately in higher income American households, earning on average $150k or more, these drugs are no longer just for the rich and famous. About 7 million Americans are currently taking these medications, and that number could hit 24 million by 2035, according to Morgan Stanley.

Growing up in Seattle, I felt privileged to have access to healthy food, yet I can’t remember a time where managing my weight wasn’t something in the back (or front!) of my mind. Clearly, I’m not alone. So, it begs the question…how did we get here? And what are the implications of how and what we eat in the future?

Ultraprocessed food and the effects of GLP-1 drugs

Since the 1980s, obesity in the US has soared, with three-quarters of Americans now classified as either overweight or obese. While previous hypotheses pointed the finger at overeating, energy intake and energy available have remained steady since 2000:

(National Library of Medicine)

Scientists, politicians and consumers are now pointing the finger at one thing - ultraprocessed food. A simple explanation of this category is “anything edible you can’t make in your own kitchen if you tried”. (The Daily, A Turning Point for Ultraprocessed Foods)

By the 1980s, 60% of the food supply in America was classified as ultraprocessed, and now it is estimated at over 70%. There are a couple of major reasons why ultraprocessed food is being attributed to rapid weight gain:

When we eat minimally or unprocessed food, our gut bacteria consume around 22% of the energy through the digestion process, whereas with ultraprocess food, our bodies soak up 100% of the calories.
Our brains are also wired to crave this type of food. Addiction scientists have coined the term “hyperpalatable” - food that has a high level of at least two nutrients (e.g. high in salt and fat, fat and sugar, etc.) which doesn't normally occur in nature.

So, why does this matter with the intake of GLP-1 drugs?

We’re seeing that it’s not just people eating less, but eating differently. GLP-1 receptors are found in the hypothalamus, which is the area that signals fullness. But perhaps more interesting, they’re also found in our reptilian desire circuitry, involved in addictive behaviors that trigger our brain’s dopamine reward system.

By helping regulate the release of dopamine, many people taking drugs like Ozempic are sharing a loss of interest in ultraprocessed food, reporting an unpleasant taste and mouthfeel. Instead, they’re opting for fresh produce and yogurt. As one user said, “I just started to realize strawberries taste wonderful by themselves.”

With 7% of America currently on Ozempic and intake accelerating across the UK and Europe (most notably Denmark, home of Novo Nordisk), this may have some companies rejoicing, and others wondering…what comes next? With some forecasts predicting up to 10% of Americans could be on Ozempic by 2030 and intake accelerating across the UK and Europe (most notably Denmark, home of Novo Nordisk), this may have some companies rejoicing, and others wondering…what comes next?

An opportunity for innovation

As the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention, and perhaps this will be the push needed to fuel the next wave of breakthrough innovation in food & drink.

According to Mintel’s report on “The Role of Innovation in the Future of CPG,” the first half of 2024 had the lowest proportion of innovation since it began tracking new products in 1996. Within this, innovation within food and beverage has declined the most:

Coupled with steady price increases, big brands are continuing to face growing competition through private-label and challenger brands as the innovation cycle accelerates through AI.

“The rise of AI means bigger CPG brands are now operating in a ‘real-time world’. Innovation cycles that previously took years can now take just months, and algorithms can make sense of a dizzying array of new digital data points as they happen. As a result, bigger brands need to become more agile and faster to win the race for ‘white space’.” (Mintel, The Role of Innovation in the Future of the CPG Industry)

As these medications challenge our relationship with ultraprocessed foods, it opens the door for big brands to ride the tailwinds of these cultural shifts and emerging technology into new spaces, e.g.:

Updated flavor profiles to adapt to new palettes
Smaller portions to cater to diminishing meal size
Enriched snacks to ensure sufficient intake of key vitamins and minerals
Expanding into fresh food

We’re still at the early stages of understand long-term implications of how GLP-1 will impact our shopping and dietary needs, but for food and beverage companies, it could be an opportunity to reshape the future of the industry. I’m excited to see (and taste) what comes next.

Interested in learning more about our culture-first approach to innovation? Please reach out to enquiry@beentheredonethat.co.

Teigan Henry
Director at BeenThereDoneThat

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